Survey shows pro-Kurdish HDP voters turning back on ballots

The Socio-Political Field Research Center, a Diyarbakır-based research center conducted a survey asking the public about the primary problems faced by the country. Results showed that the economy and unemployment were the most important concern, the second being the Kurdish issue. The survey also revealed that the state's appointment of trustees to southeastern municipalities have led voters affiliated with the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) to stay away from the ballot box.

The research center carried out field research in a total of 21 cities, including regional centers such as Diyarbakır, Urfa, Van, Mardin and Bingöl as well as large cities like Istanbul, Ankara, Bursa, Konya, Izmir, Mersin, Trabzon and Erzurum.

A survey conducted face-to-face with 1,937 participants between the 29th of October and the 1st of November yielded striking results.

Participants were asked questions such as "What do you think is the number 1 priority problem in Turkey?" and "Were there to be local elections this Sunday, which party would you vote for?"

To the question "What do you think is the number 1 priority in Turkey?", 32.8 percent of Justice and Development Party (AKP) voters said "economy/unemployment", 18.3 percent said "Kurdish Issue" and 10.3 percent said "foreign policy".

Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) voters, responded in a manner similar to AKP voters, stating the number one problem is the economy and unemployment. Yet contrary to AKP voters, they said the "Presidency system" is the second greatest issue.

31.5 percent of CHP voters said "economy/unemployment" is the number one, 23.4 percent said the "Presidency system" is number two and 8.9 percent said the "Kurdish issue" is the third most important issue in the country.

37.9 percent of HDP voters said the "Kurdish issue" is the primary problem in Turkey. 28.1 percent said "economy/unemployment" and 13.8 percent said "Presidency system". Responding to the question "Which party is closest to solving the problems?", 28.3 percent of HDP voters said the AKP, 26.6 percent said the CHP, 8.8 percent said HDP and 7.4 percent said the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

The question "Which party did you vote for in the last Municipal Elections of 2019?" was also asked. Of the research group, 37.6 percent said AKP, 36 percent said CHP, 6.6 percent HDP, 5.4 percent İYİ Party, 3.7 percent MHP, 1.1 percent Felicity Party (SP) and 6 percent said they did not vote.

After floating votes were distributed, the results of the question "Who would you vote for were there to be municipal elections this Sunday?" were: 34.5 percent for the AKP, 34.5 percent for the CHP, 8.4 percent for the HDP, 7.7 percent for the MHP, 4.5 percent for the İYİ Party, 3.4 percent for Davutoğlu and his new party and 1.7 percent for Babacan and his new party.

This means that if there were to be municipal elections this Sunday, the AKP would lose 3.1 percent, the CHP 1.5 percent, the İYİ Party 0.9 percent less votes, while the HDP would gain 1.8 and the MHP 4 percent more votes.

The answers collected in the survey also show voting behavior patterns. 70.2 percent of AKP voters said they would vote for the AKP again while 12.5 said they would vote for the MHP and 6.2 percent said they would vote for Davutoğlu's new party.

Among CHP voters, 70.6 percent said they would vote for the CHP again while 11.5 percent were undecided and 6.9 said they would vote for the İYİ Party.

Among HDP voters 74.6 percent said they would vote for HDP again while 13.4 percent said they would not vote at all and 3.9 percent replied "I don't know/no comment".

To the question "Which party did you vote for in the general elections held on 24 June 2018", 39.5 percent responded AKP, 24.9 percent CHP, 10.5 percent HDP, 9.9 percent MHP, 4.1 percent İYİ Party and 1.4 percent responded SP.

When asked "Which party would you vote for if there was general elections this Sunday?", 38.3 percent of participants said AKP, 27.7 percent said CHP, 10.3 percent HDP, 7.8 percent MHP, 4.8 percent İYİ Party, 3.9 percent said Davutoğlu's new party and 2.4 percent said Babacan's new party.

According to these results, only 3 parties pass the 10 percent threshold while the new parties by former prime minister Davutoğlu and former deputy prime minister Babacan seem to have 6.3 percent of votes.

76.2 percent of AKP voters say they will again vote for AKP, 7.3 percent for Davutoğlu's new party and 6.3 percent say they will vote for CHP, while on the other hand 80.9 percent of CHP voters say they will again vote for CHP. 10 percent say they are undecided and 2.5 percent say they will vote for AKP.

An interesting point is that while 79.3 percent of HDP voters say they will again vote for the HDP, 8.3 percent said that they will not vote and 5.4 percent said they will vote for the CHP.

61.5 percent of MHP voters expressed their will to vote for the MHP again while 12 percent wish to vote for the AKP and 9.4 percent for the İYİ Party.

Another interesting result of the survey is that while 68.8 percent of İYİ Party voters will stay with their party, 12.5 percent say they will vote for the CHP and 6.3 percent say they will vote for the AKP.