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President Ertan Aksoy of the Social Democracy Foundation (SODEV), which reached the agenda due to its incisive polling prior to this year’s local elections, said that if an election was to be held this Sunday, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and their far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would not stand a chance, in comments to the Artı Gerçek news portal on Monday. 

“From what I’ve seen in the public opinion surveys, the AKP-MHP are getting around 38-40 percent. This figure is not a coincidence. Because of these constraints they couldn’t call an early election. Now what will happen after the operation? If they could have held an election during the week of the operation, they would have done so,” Aksoy said, referencing Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring in northeastern Syria. 

Mentioning a breakaway party that is expected to soon be founded by former AKP founder and economy minister Ali Babacan, Aksoy said that the party could receive 11-12 percent of the vote, and that most of this would be coming from AKP voters. 

There has been considerable speculation surrounding what impact Babacan’s party, in addition to a separate breakaway opposition party being founded by former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu could have on Turkey’s political sphere. 

Aksoy said that Davutoğlu’s party could achieve results higher than expected and could command around 8 percent of the vote.