If the parliamentary election were held today in Turkey, the opposition parties would have each obtained a vote share higher than what they received in 2018, whereas the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its alliance partner Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would have performed worse, according to a pollster.
According to a survey conducted by the polling agency Polimetre, the AKP sees a 12.56 percentage of loss in the vote share, whereas the MHP a 2.3 percentage of loss, compared to the 2018 results.
In the 2018 parliamentary election, the AKP secured 42.56 percent of the votes. The ruling party was followed by the People’s Republican Party (CHP) with 22.65 percent, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) with 11.70 percent, the MHP with 11.10 percent and İYİ (Good) Party with 9.96 percent.
According to the survey, if a new election were to be held today, the AKP would have received 30 percent of the votes, whereas the MHP 8.9 percent of the votes.
The survey put support at 25.3 percent for the main opposition CHP, 11.1 percent for the İYİ Party and 12.8 percent for the pro-Kurdish HDP.
The survey showed the newly founded Future Party — founded by Ahmet Davutoğlu, former prime minister and a longtime ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — attracting 10 percent of the votes.
The pollster’s analysis shows that the Future Party poses a challenge to the AKP and MHP, as it lures 7.3 percent and 1 percent of the votes respectively from the AKP and MHP electorate. Also 0.6 percent of voters shifted from the CHP to the Future Party, whereas this figure is 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent respectively for İYİ Party and HDP.
Davutoğlu’s party has been widely discussed in terms of the potential effect it could have on Turkey’s parliamentary election in 2023.
Another party is expected to be established by former deputy prime minister Ali Babacan, another former Erdoğan ally.
If either party is successful in drawing away conservative voters who have become disenchanted with Erdoğan and the AKP, they could have a major impact in the Turkish political sphere.