Only four political parties could pass the 10 percent threshold if parliamentary elections were held today, according to pollster Avrasya.
The company’s survey was conducted over the phone on May 20-23 among 2,460 people in Turkey. The results were made public by Avrasya research director Kemal Özkiraz on May 28.
Although the government says a snap election is not on its agenda until the next scheduled general election in 2023, experts have been pointing out that due to growing economic recession, the possibility of early elections in Turkey is increasing.
Avrasya presented different scenarios to the survey participants and asked them how they would vote in each of these scenarios.
The first scenario pictures the parties joining the election by themselves, without forming an alliance. In this case, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) would garner 34.49 percent of the votes, while the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) would get 30.65 percent of the votes if Turkey headed to ballot boxes today.
The survey results put support at 10.37 percent for the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), 10.25 percent for the İYİ (Good) Party, 8.15 percent for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and 0.46 percent for the Felicity Party.
The newly established Future Party and Democracy and Progress (DEVA), which are breakway parties from the ruling AKP, would receive respectively 2.33 percent and 3.03 percent of the votes, according to Avrasya’s poll.
According to this scenario, the AKP would have 268 lawmakers in the 600-seat parliament, while the CHP, HDP and İYİ Party would have respectively 213, 73 and 46 lawmakers.
“But this [scenario of no alliance] is not what we expect. We forecast the existing alliances to continue, as a matter of fact we forecast new alliances to be formed,” Özkiraz said.
According to the second scenario, which is said to be “much more likely,” the current alliances will be maintained.
Accordingly, “People’s Alliance,” which includes the AKP, MHP and Great Unity Party (BBP), will garner 42.71 percent of the votes, while the “Nation Alliance” which includes the CHP, İYİ Party and Felicity Party, will receive 40.65 percent of the votes.
This scenario sees the HDP garnering 10.9 percent of the votes.
If an alliance were formed between DEVA and Future Party, they would receive 5.44 percent of the votes in total in this scenario, according to the pollster.
Accordingly, the People’s Alliance would have 284 lawmakers in the parliament, whereas the Nation Alliance would have 261 lawmakers. The HDP on the other hand would have 55 lawmakers.
Özkiraz said that he did not see this scenario as likely to happen as Felicity Party would be inclined to form an alliance with DEVA and Future Party.
Another scenario sees the CHP, İYİ Party, Felicity Party, DEVA and Future Party forming an alliance. Özkiraz said that although such an alliance is not currently on the table, he theorized it and asked the survey participants which alliance they would favor in this case.
The People’s Alliance would garner 45.91 percent of the votes (with 301 lawmakers), whereas the opposition alliance would receive 42.56 percent of the votes (with 245 lawmakers) in this case.
If the CHP and HDP were to form a left-wing alliance, they would receive 37.9 percent of the votes in this third scenario, which is “one of the most reasonable scenarios of alliance,” said Özkiraz.
This scenario sees İYİ Party, Felicity Party, DEVA and Future Party forming a center-right alliance and garnering 17.99 percent of the votes.
The People’s Alliance would receive 44.9 percent of the votes in this case.
According to this scenario, the People’s Alliance would have 265 lawmakers in the parliament, whereas the CHP-HDP alliance would have 234 lawmakers and center-right alliance would have 101 lawmakers.