Turkey's new opposition parties could split the diaspora vote

Ayşegül Karakülhancı/ COLOGNE

Two recently-founded opposition parties established by former key government figures could split the vote of Turkish citizens living abroad, according to sociologist Dr. Sinem Adar of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. 

The Future Party was established late last year by former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu while the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) was founded by former Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan in March. Both co-founders of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and longtime allies of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Davutoğlu and Babacan officially split with the party in 2019. 

Due to the increasingly harsh internal politics of the AKP and the stripping of parliamentary immunity from three deputies, the issue of possible early elections has returned to the agenda. Earlier this month, Enis Berberoğlu from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and Leyla Güven and Musa Farisoğulları from the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) had their parliamentary immunity revoked and were subsequently arrested. 

When discussions surrounding elections emerge, so does the factor of the diaspora vote, particularly concerning Germany, which has over a large Turkish population — more than one million eligible voters — and votes in the majority for the AKP. According to Adar, the Future Party and DEVA could peel away some AKP votes from religious conservatives close to Milli Görüş, the Islamist political movement that served as the predecessor to the AKP and which maintains an active presence in Turkish diaspora communities. Many of these people have been unhappy with the AKP and Erdoğan for several years but continued to support them due to the lack of an alternative. 

“With the new parties in front of their eyes, it becomes more difficult for them to say 'if the AKP goes, the CHP will take their place.' The Future Party and DEVA could constitute a threat to the AKP in terms of the diaspora vote,” Adar said, adding that Mustafa Yeneroğlu, who left the AKP to join the DEVA, came to Germany as an infant and grew up there, and is an influential name in Milli Görüş circles. 

Adar said that the new parties may face the disadvantage of having not yet established organizations abroad, but that figures like Yeneroğlu who know Germany well could have an advantage in reaching voters. 

An important factor in the next elections, whether they are held early or in 2023 as scheduled, is the turnout rate among eligible diaspora voters. Turkish citizens living in Germany were first able to vote in Turkey's elections in 2014, in which the turnout was 18 percent, according to Adar. That figure shot up to 45.7 percent in the 2018 elections, an indication of the mobilization of state resources on the behalf of the AKP. 

“In spite of this, you have 54 percent that couldn't be mobilized. The first question is why they couldn't mobilize a majority, and the second question is who would the non-voters choose if they had voted?” Adar said.