February 20 2020
The only conclusion we can draw from the Osman Kavala saga is that there is a consistency in the nonsense of this country's political events.
The MHP is the losing side of the government alliance. When it gets too close to the AKP, the two parties sink together. Recent poll data shows that the decline in the AKP has also started to pull down the MHP.
Amid successive foreign policy and economic fiascos, President Erdoğan needs his sycophants to convince him all is well so his stature remains unchanged. Yet when they cease to convince him, his leadership will crumble.
In 2011, the AKP came up with a new strategy which became official in 2015. The party scraped its connection with the poor, referring to it only in an identity-focused discourse. As it rapidly slid into authoritarianism, the government instrumentalized its relationship with the poor, in line with right-wing populist practices.
While Erdoğan's government emphasizes unchangeability, resilience and sustainability, it is further moving away from its bid to solve problems and prospects for the future. The difficulties of the opposition, which has been engaged in a long-term quest to find ways to change the political landscape, have now been replaced by the government’s crisis.
Lately there has been an intense debate from both within and outside of the AKP in terms of whether or not anything will come out of the party initatives arising from within the AKP. However, what most likely should be argued is whether anything will come out of the AKP at all at this point.