Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere

ee.guzeldere@gmail.com
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German elections and Turkey Part 3 19 MPs with a background in Turkey have became MPs at after the elections, the highest absolute number and percentage ever. In general, the Bundestag has been becoming more diverse in the past two legislatures.
German elections and Turkey Part 2 In the next German parliament, at least 20 MPs will have a background in Turkey, the highest number ever. All democratic parties, including the conservative ones, will send German-Turks to the Bundestag, in total 5 parties. This is not yet as diverse as the national soccer team, but the trend is positive. German elections and Turkey - Part 1 Turkey plays virtually no role in the campaigns of the political parties prior to the Sept. 26 election in Germany. Nevertheless, the election result will also have a major impact on German-Turkish relations, as a continuation of the current coalition is practically out of question. So what do the parties represented in parliament have to say about Turkey?
Wowereit and Black Wolf Although homosexuality is not illegal in Turkey, it is not widely accepted, as was the case in Western Europe until recently. In Germany, it took a 2001 mayor in Berlin to advance recognition. In Turkey, this role could fall to a young female volleyball player. The center is far right In Turkey and abroad, the criticism focuses on the government and President Erdoğan. This portrays the opposition in a more democratic light. Something for which there is little substance. Most opposition parties rally with the government at the far right of the political spectrum. Consumption and crisis Domestic tourism boomed during the bayram week. Hotels, beaches, resorts, shopping centers, were all full. All this during an economic crisis between a third and fourth wave of the pandemic? However, this form of consumption is not a good economic indicator, but distracts from the economic problems most Turks have been suffering from. Danger here, there, and everywhere A Turkish journalist was assaulted in the yard of his house in Berlin last week. The message is clear: If you are critical of the Turkish government, you are not safe in Germany either, you are not safe anywhere. There are a number of people suspected as possible perpetrators of last week's attack. According to estimates, between 6,000 and 8,000 people work as informants for the Turkish intelligence service MİT in Germany. A relatively positive agenda...at least until Merkel is out Even with the sustained status quo on Cyprus, EU-Turkey relations might become more troublesome after the elections in Germany in late September. After a new government is sworn in, Merkel is out. Turkey will lose its strongest ally, who has been protecting it so far from sanctions and harsher reactions and the strongest advocate of the positive agenda. Greece and Turkey as close and distant neighbors What do Greeks and Turks think about one another? A survey conducted in both countries reveals widespread agreement, e.g. that the EU is unfair and that the East-Med is a major confrontational issue, however, the citizens from both countries largely do not feel that their cultures are close. Germans and Turks: Diamond Wedding In 1961, (West) Germany and Turkey signed a recruitment agreement setting out the conditions under which Turks were allowed to work in Germany. Although long-term residence was initially forbidden, Germany became the permanent home of almost 3 million people from Turkey. There could be much to be celebrated, but because of the difficulties within bilateral relations, most people don't feel much like celebrating. Turkey’s limited soft power in the Balkans   Over the past two decades Turkey’s influence in the Balkans has increased on all fronts, from politics to the economy, culture, and military cooperation. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has not helped Turkey to further improve its standing. Turkish vaccines might be on the way, but it will probably be too late for the Balkans. Open the gate! Turkey and Armenia don’t have diplomatic relations, nor an open land border. The reason is not different interpretations of the past, but the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh. This changed last fall, so that there is no formal reason left why Turkey should not have an open border with Armenia. Time to open the gates! Damaged Laschet vs rising Baerbock The two biggest German parties finally have their candidates for the elections in fall. While there are no losers within the Greens, there are many losers in the CDU, the most important one the chairman and now chancellor candidate. The CDU/CSU turned it into a dirty power struggle that severely damaged Laschet. Even with second place, the new chancellor could end up being Baerbock. A new EU framework for Turkey? For the record, Turkey is still an EU candidate. However, a parallel framework has emerged after the EU summit of March 25-26, which treats Turkey as a third party rather than a candidate for membership. If Turkey deescalates in the East-Med, continues talking to Greece, and participates in new Cyprus talks, then the EU won’t bother about the rule of law, human rights, and political prisoners. The inconvenient impact of Gergerlioğlu Since President Erdoğan announced the human rights action plan in early March, there has been a lot of action regarding human rights issues! Conservative MP Gergerlioğlu lost his mandate, the second biggest opposition party is faced with a closure case, and Turkey abandoned the Istanbul Convention. How will the EU react to recent developments in Turkey at the leaders summit this week? Would they prefer to rely on the announcements or look at reality? Germany’s mishandling of the COVID-19 crisis The COVID-19 crisis has left us disenchanted with German politics. Mishaps and scandals mark one year since the start of the pandemic, from missing masks and tests to a very slow vaccination start. But, since all political parties are involved in the decision-making process, none are likely to learn their lesson and face the consequences of their actions in September's federal elections. From (virtual) Munich with harmony For U.S. President Biden, the world is at a crossroads between autocracy and democracy. He is counting on allies in Europe to strengthen the democratic bloc. After four years of Trump, who declared the EU an enemy of American interests, one can understand the relief in Europe over Biden and his foreign policy course. However, whether the transatlantic harmony is more than just rhetoric remains to be seen. Laschet not to change Germany's approach towards Turkey The new CDU chairman won’t change the approach towards Turkey. Laschet has never been in favor of Turkey’s full EU membership, but he supported the ‘pacta sund servanda’ approach of Angela Merkel, to respect official agreements. For the German-Turks and migrants in Germany, Laschet is a good choice. Two German Turks Özlem Türeci and Uğur Şahin are two of the big winners of 2020. Their start-up BioNTech was the fastest to develop a COVID-19 vaccine with a new technology. They are also two German-Turks. Two out of almost 3 million, who are politically meanwhile as polarized as Turks in Turkey. It could be worse At the recent EU summit, a clear decision regarding sanctions against Turkey has once again been postponed until the next summit in late March 2021, and chose to outsource the decision to the incoming Biden administration, which will face this issue on day one. The likelihood that harsher sanctions would lead to a change in the behavior of the Turkish government is, however, close to zero.